Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbade…819e other 25 markets active 3d ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-4%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$60
14 days−$28
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$46
sports 23% +$55
crypto 8% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -46.8% -51.8% 27% 27% -49.5%
≤30d 18 +9.7% -0.8% 44% 44% -5.1%
≤90d 23 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 39% -14.2%
all 23 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 39% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 39% -14.2%
10% -23.5% 39% -22.4%
15% -30.9% 39% -29.9%
20% -37.7% 30% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage83d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$5 +50%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$2 -12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$35 +350%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $14 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 3d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $15 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $10 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $10 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 20d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $10 65d
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes $10 67d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 67d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 72d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 73d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $10 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.50 · official $28.50 (match) · 55 history records