Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xbae1…2def sports 80 markets active 6h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$626 (-5%) realized −$627 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$195
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 28% −$215
economics 27% −$48
other 20% +$334
sports 15% +$216
politics 9% −$909
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +7.9% -2.4% 62% 62% +17.2%
≤30d 46 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 52% -9.7%
≤90d 52 -1.4% -10.8% 54% 54% -6.0%
all 71 -12.5% -20.9% 46% 46% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 46% -14.5%
10% -28.4% 45% -22.7%
15% -35.4% 42% -30.2%
20% -41.7% 38% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$62 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized−$627
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 38
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions9
Markets (closed)71 / 80
History coverage595d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $75 $126 +$51 (+68%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 60¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 62¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 35¢ 10¢ $69 $21 −$49 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $32 +$23 +70%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $16 +$10 +62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $16 +$10 +60%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $16 −$16 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $16 +$17 +105%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $16 +$12 +73%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $32 +$16 +50%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $32 +$17 +52%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $16 −$16 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $81 +$48 +60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $16 +$10 +65%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $32 +$25 +76%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $16 −$16 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 +$18 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$19 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$33 +65%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$25 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$63 +124%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $51 −$45 -89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$11 -21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $236 +$164 +70%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 01 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 23 $52 +$47 +90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Apr 19 $24 +$16 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $16 6h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $16 6h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $16 6h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $16 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $16 6h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $32 6h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $16 6h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $16 6h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $16 6h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $16 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $16 6h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $32 6h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $16 26h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $16 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $16 26h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $32 26h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $16 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $16 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $16 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $32 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $16 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $32 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $81 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $16 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $16 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $32 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.11 · official $468.11 (match) · 186 history records