Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BA 0xbae4…50fe crypto 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,939 (-5%) realized −$5,910 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%84W / 64L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$881per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1,602est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$804now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,128
7 days−$1,128
14 days−$1,128
30 days−$5,557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$8,311
crypto 4% −$473
other 2% +$279
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +205.1% +176.0% 25% 25% -26.0%
≤30d 48 +27.3% +15.2% 54% 42% -8.4%
≤90d 148 -0.8% -10.2% 57% 37% -10.7%
all 148 -0.8% -10.2% 57% 37% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 37% -10.7%
10% -18.8% 24% -19.2%
15% -26.7% 15% -27.0%
20% -33.9% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$278 vs −$497 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$804
Realized−$5,910
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses84 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,602
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage48d
Avg bet$881
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $831 $802 −$29 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $1,611 −$776 -48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2,016 −$401 -20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,701 +$314 +18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$11 +44%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $136 −$109 -80%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $121 −$121 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $150 −$14 -10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $181 −$86 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 06 $80 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $168 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $79 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$28 +56%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $326 −$277 -85%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $565 +$118 +21%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 05 $1,725 −$1,708 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $7,001 −$6,673 -95%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 04 $1,624 −$1,600 -99%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $1,543 +$398 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2,746 +$5,468 +199%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $7,231 −$2,222 -31%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $2,315 +$2,659 +115%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $3,823 −$1,513 -40%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $3,422 +$412 +12%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $3,123 +$300 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $2,731 +$393 +14%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $12,080 −$11,928 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $8,926 +$2,648 +30%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $17,095 +$1,974 +12%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $6,035 +$1,383 +23%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Warwickshire May 29 $502 +$91 +18%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $1,518 +$1,050 +69%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $2,019 +$51 +2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky May 28 $2,012 +$455 +23%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $6,869 +$290 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $6,450 +$514 +8%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $4,929 +$1,204 +24%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,755 +$2,212 +80%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $357 −$238 -67%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $365 −$360 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $298 +$67 +23%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $717 +$594 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $713 +$7 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,084 −$148 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 22 $29 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 22 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $838 4m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL San Francisco Giants 28¢ $0 10m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL San Francisco Giants 29¢ $835 11m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $1,611 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 69¢ $1,614 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $2,016 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,701 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $33 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $33 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $24 24h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Indiana Fever 10¢ $24 24h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 53¢ $136 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 81¢ $121 28h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $121 28h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $114 34h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan $15 34h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 14¢ $36 35h
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 60¢ $91 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs SELL San Francisco Giants 43¢ $91 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 41¢ $90 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $90 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $80 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $80 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $94 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $93 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $74 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $74 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $79 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $79 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $803.91 · official $802.48 (match) · 382 history records