Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbae8…d54b other 240 markets active 15h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$37
sports 25% −$22
politics 9% −$8
economics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$6
world 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 60 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 165 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 240 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage135d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $140 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $637 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $126 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $206 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $306 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $385 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $888 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $629 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $441 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $486 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $304 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $603 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $165 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $395 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $146 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $474 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $227 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $183 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 15h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 17h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 20h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 22h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 27h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 27h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 30h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 31h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 33h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 34h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 39h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 3d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 3d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 4d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1381 history records