Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaed…bc0e crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$71 (+13%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$3
other 18% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.3% -18.9% 42% 42% -26.5%
≤30d 19 -10.3% -18.9% 42% 42% -26.5%
≤90d 19 -10.3% -18.9% 42% 42% -26.5%
all 19 -10.3% -18.9% 42% 42% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 42% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 32% -33.5%
15% -33.7% 32% -39.9%
20% -40.2% 32% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$29 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$26 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$24 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$11 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$27 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$29 +273%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records