Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaf2…c8f7 crypto 56 markets active 5d ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$865 (-22%) realized −$865 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$845
14 days−$845
30 days−$845
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$974
sports 10% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -31.3% -37.9% 30% 30% -35.2%
≤30d 30 -31.3% -37.9% 30% 30% -35.2%
≤90d 56 -23.0% -30.3% 36% 34% -32.5%
all 56 -23.0% -30.3% 36% 34% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 34% -32.5%
10% -37.0% 32% -38.9%
15% -43.1% 29% -44.8%
20% -48.7% 23% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$64 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$865
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage55d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $206 +$333 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $155 −$79 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $113 +$80 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$123 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$73 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $105 +$236 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $108 −$104 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $105 +$116 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$42 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 20 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 20 $40 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 20 $20 +$19 +96%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 20 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 20 $17 +$87 +526%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $58 +$9 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $79 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $76 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $113 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records