Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaf6…d984 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,889per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% −$23
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$3
sports 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -33.9% -40.2% 12% 12% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -30.2% -36.8% 11% 11% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -30.2% -36.8% 11% 11% -9.9%
all 9 -30.2% -36.8% 11% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 11% -9.9%
10% -42.9% 11% -18.5%
15% -48.4% 11% -26.4%
20% -53.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$11 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1,889
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $15,485 −$22 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $278 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 11 $260 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 27 $776 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up $5 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $256 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $256 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $256 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $257 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $257 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $257 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $257 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $258 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $258 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $258 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $258 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $258 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $258 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $259 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $259 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $259 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $260 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records