Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BA 0xbaf8…4410 other 19 markets active 8h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$89 (+12%) realized +$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$2
sports 34% +$135
crypto 7% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +18.7% +7.4% 63% 63% +1.0%
≤30d 19 +18.7% +7.4% 63% 63% +1.0%
≤90d 19 +18.7% +7.4% 63% 63% +1.0%
all 19 +18.7% +7.4% 63% 63% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 63% +1.0%
10% -2.9% 63% -8.7%
15% -12.3% 63% -17.5%
20% -20.9% 58% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$41 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$25 +165%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 +$31 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$11 +53%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $49 +$31 +64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $51 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 47h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $15 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $109 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $25 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $54 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $76 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $20 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $46 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $80 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $49 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records