Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xbaf9…a4e7 crypto 1689 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$207 (-7%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%1067W / 622L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day70.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$54
14 days−$52
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 278 -9.4% -18.0% 63% 61% -19.5%
≤30d 1689 -3.1% -12.3% 63% 61% -13.7%
≤90d 1689 -3.1% -12.3% 63% 61% -13.7%
all 1689 -3.1% -12.3% 63% 61% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 61% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 53% -22.0%
15% -28.3% 43% -29.5%
20% -35.4% 28% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1067 / 622
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1689 / 1689
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day70.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1689 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records