Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaf9…c434 other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$17
politics 33% −$16
sports 14% +$40
crypto 4% −$2
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 144 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×10.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage133d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $193 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $208 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 25 $197 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $402 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $221 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $396 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $208 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $217 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $171 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $187 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $181 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $181 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $431 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $411 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $802 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $238 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $224 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $411 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $211 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $243 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $39 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 21d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $193 24d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 24d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 24d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $197 27d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $197 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $215 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $215 29d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $239 29d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $239 30d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $209 30d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $209 30d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $216 31d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $216 32d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $221 32d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $221 33d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $198 33d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 33d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $193 33d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $193 34d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.99 · official $34.99 (match) · 459 history records