Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
BA 0xbafb…85e2 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 614d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,015 (-67%) realized −$3,012 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$1,247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$44
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$2,991
other 31% −$47
crypto 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -43.2% -48.6% 0% 0% -48.6%
≤30d 3 -25.3% -32.4% 33% 33% -24.3%
≤90d 3 -25.3% -32.4% 33% 33% -24.3%
all 4 -44.0% -49.3% 25% 25% -95.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.3% 25% -95.1%
10% -54.2% 0% -95.6%
15% -58.6% 0% -96.0%
20% -62.6% 0% -96.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1,012 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$1,247
Realized−$3,012
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)4 / 16
History coverage614d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $250 $307 +$57 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $250 $211 −$39 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $100 $153 +$53 (+53%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $100 $59 −$41 (-41%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 −$15 -29%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 −$29 -57%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 +$11 +10%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 16 $2,991 −$2,991 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,247.23 · official $1,247.23 (match) · 33 history records