Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BA 0xbafe…33a6 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,059 (+56%) realized +$1,029 · open +$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip

Net edge+70%after slip

Net WR81%break-even

Win rate81%13W / 3L

Drawdown11%max

Avg bet$82per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$630now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$52

7 days+$314

14 days+$277

30 days+$1,121

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +81%

net ROI/market (all)+70.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+69.1%	+53.0%	71%	71%	+58.9%
≤30d	16	+88.0%	+70.1%	81%	81%	+69.9%
≤90d	16	+88.0%	+70.1%	81%	81%	+69.9%
all	16	+88.0%	+70.1%	81%	81%	+69.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+70.1%	81%	+69.9%
10%	+53.8%	81%	+53.7%
15%	+39.0%	81%	+38.8%
20%	+25.3%	75%	+25.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 33% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +88% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +88% · $-wt +88% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +128% → late +48% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$100 vs −$59 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.29 per $1 lost it wins $7.29

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage

Net worth$630

Realized+$1,029

Unrealized+$30

Win rate (resolved)81%

Wins / losses13 / 3

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions7

Markets (closed)16 / 23

History coverage28d

Avg bet$82

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown11%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	54¢	69¢	$100	$129	+$29 (+29%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	18¢	$150	$126	−$24 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	14¢	$100	$122	+$22 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$100	$115	+$15 (+15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$100	$93	−$7 (-7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$25	$23	−$2 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$25	$22	−$3 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$51	+$105	+206%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	Jun 25	$10	−$3	-32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$51	+$65	+129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$46	+46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	+$63	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$51	+$88	+172%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$128	−$125	-98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$51	+$88	+172%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$51	+$101	+197%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)	Jun 11	$24	+$17	+69%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$102	+$111	+109%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	Jun 06	$102	+$161	+158%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 31	$203	+$262	+129%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5	May 31	$101	+$95	+93%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)	May 29	$102	+$98	+97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$154	1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$7	2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$51	2h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$26	8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	19¢	$26	8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$51	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	36¢	$51	7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$26	10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	14d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)	BUY Knicks	58¢	$24	15d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	33¢	$51	15d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	47¢	$102	17d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	BUY Knicks	38¢	$102	20d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	36¢	$51	25d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5	BUY Over	51¢	$101	26d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Spurs	43¢	$203	26d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)	BUY Spurs	50¢	$102	28d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.11 · official $630.13 (match) · 53 history records