Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbafe…5c14 weather 278 markets active 4h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,403 (-2%) realized −$5,408 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate89%247W / 29L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$842per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$505
14 days−$6,434
30 days−$5,492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$3,095
other 23% −$2,251
weather 22% −$1,388
world 14% +$810
crypto 9% +$271
politics 4% +$302
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -22.1% -29.5% 74% 4% -21.2%
≤30d 119 -6.3% -15.2% 88% 7% -18.5%
≤90d 120 -6.1% -15.0% 88% 8% -18.4%
all 276 -1.8% -11.2% 89% 12% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 12% -11.6%
10% -19.7% 4% -20.1%
15% -27.5% 1% -27.8%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$747) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$491 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$5,408
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses247 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)276 / 278
History coverage285d
Avg bet$842
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 93¢ 88¢ $75 $71 −$4 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $58 $67 +$9 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $163 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $184 +$6 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $139 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $123 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $153 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $416 +$32 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$9 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $276 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $380 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $459 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $135 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $431 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $254 −$251 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $247 −$245 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$10 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $160 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $418 +$44 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2,039 −$1,774 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $1,531 +$23 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $249 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5? Jun 09 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5? Jun 09 $117 −$57 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $115 +$38 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $281 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $197 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $319 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $196 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $195 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 8? Jun 07 $162 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,022 +$9 +1%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 07 $4,036 −$4,036 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $230 −$228 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $937 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 6? Jun 07 $747 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $539 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $951 +$18 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1,216 +$20 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $345 +$25 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $276 +$13 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $399 −$372 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $101 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $46 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $31 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $91 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 87¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 87¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 87¢ $52 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 87¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $168 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $33 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $56 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $25 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $25 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $190 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $33 40h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $20 41h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $6 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $6 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $5 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 93¢ $77 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $116 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $88 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $149 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $0 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $123 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.10 · official $138.10 (match) · 2272 history records