Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb00…7893 world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate45%26W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% $0
other 27% +$1
politics 5% −$2
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% +$1
finance 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 20 +4.9% -5.1% 25% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 20 +4.9% -5.1% 25% 10% -9.5%
all 58 -0.6% -10.0% 45% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 7% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses26 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage489d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $45 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1 $0 +39%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 +$2 +67%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $30 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $39 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $45 −$3 -6%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 06 $8 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 20 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 16 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 13 $22 $0 +0%
Jordan Spieth Grand Slam? May 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Mumbai Indians win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $9 $0 -1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $9 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $8 +$3 +30%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 26 $9 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 26 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $25 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $13 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $42 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $42 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $7 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $1 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $33 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $42 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $43 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $44 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $6 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $24 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $22 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $17 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $23 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $33 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $40 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $40 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records