Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BB 0xbb01…e80a other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% $0
sports 23% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.6% +0.1% 75% 50% +0.4%
≤30d 4 +10.6% +0.1% 75% 50% +0.4%
≤90d 4 +10.6% +0.1% 75% 50% +0.4%
all 4 +10.6% +0.1% 75% 50% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 50% +0.4%
10% -9.5% 50% -9.2%
15% -18.2% 50% -18.0%
20% -26.2% 50% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)4 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $4 31h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.21 · official $14.21 (match) · 22 history records