Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BB 0xbb08…2b30 crypto 394 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,248 (+11%) realized +$1,900 · open +$348
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%163W / 213L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$312
14 days+$396
30 days+$1,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$1,607
world 14% −$449
other 5% +$8
tech 5% +$28
finance 2% +$398
economics 2% +$314
sports 1% +$5
politics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +106.0% +86.4% 56% 44% +0.1%
≤30d 32 +41.4% +27.9% 50% 41% +6.6%
≤90d 364 -10.9% -19.3% 42% 40% -3.8%
all 376 -9.2% -17.8% 43% 41% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 41% -1.7%
10% -25.7% 38% -11.1%
15% -32.9% 35% -19.7%
20% -39.5% 30% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$27 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$3,038
Realized+$1,900
Unrealized+$348
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses163 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)376 / 394
History coverage127d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 29¢ 55¢ $355 $661 +$306 (+86%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 38¢ 85¢ $212 $472 +$260 (+122%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $620 $426 −$194 (-31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $312 $318 +$6 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 81¢ 99¢ $200 $244 +$44 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $232 $240 +$8 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $181 $222 +$41 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $174 $134 −$40 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 32¢ 50¢ $70 $108 +$38 (+55%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $101 $97 −$4 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $110 $21 −$89 (-81%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-48%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 87¢ 26¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$54 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$24 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $153 +$81 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $346 +$129 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $142 +$92 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $508 +$154 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $206 +$157 +76%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $1,005 +$28 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,006 +$89 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $186 +$153 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1,008 +$118 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $380 −$380 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $104 +$140 +134%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $759 +$912 +120%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $203 +$152 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 16 $103 +$76 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin above 81,000 on May 6, 8PM ET? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 3? May 04 $103 +$54 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 04 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 3? May 04 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 3? May 04 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1? May 02 $307 +$227 +74%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 1? May 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $103 +$202 +195%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $269 +$314 +117%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $119 +$502 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $202 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $144 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $407 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $205 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $104 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $179 26h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $186 26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $238 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $320 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,033 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,038.31 · official $3,056.16 (match) · 947 history records