Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BB 0xbb0b…3790 sports 867 markets active 3h ago coverage 71d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$158,907 (+231%) realized +$149,624 · open +$9,283
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +157% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +98% what you keep after slip
Net edge+98%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%328W / 719L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day43.9pace
Fees−$1,853est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$21,306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$50,434
other 42% +$12,857
crypto 1% +$105
world 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+132.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 316 -46.4% -51.5% 5% 5% -30.4%
≤30d 462 +35.6% +22.7% 14% 14% +29.8%
≤90d 1047 +157.1% +132.6% 31% 31% +47.3%
all 1047 +157.1% +132.6% 31% 31% +47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +132.6% 31% +47.3%
10% ← realistic here +110.3% 30% +33.2%
15% +90.0% 28% +20.4%
20% +71.4% 27% +8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +157% · $-wt +79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +253% → late +62% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$30 · ×7.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$21,306
Realized+$149,624
Unrealized+$9,283
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses328 / 719
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,853
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1047 / 867
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1047 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 1¢ 76¢ $38 $2,888 +$2,850 (+7450%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 1¢ 52¢ $41 $2,159 +$2,118 (+5150%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 1¢ 74¢ $26 $1,953 +$1,926 (+7350%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 1¢ 30¢ $44 $1,284 +$1,240 (+2850%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Under 1¢ 28¢ $43 $1,192 +$1,148 (+2650%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 451 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
AS Roma vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Lille OSC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5 Jun 22 $78 −$78 -100%
San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Arouca vs. CD Nacional: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-01-18? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Clippers: O/U 230.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 246.5 Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Binghamton Bearcats vs. Bryant Bulldogs: O/U 135.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5) Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5 Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5) Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Wizards vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 228.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5 Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Telstar 1963 vs. FC Twente '65: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Clippers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 242.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 Jun 22 $107 −$107 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-10.5) Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Birmingham City FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 251.5 Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
76ers vs. Suns: O/U 221.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Lille OSC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Silkeborg IF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Casa Pia AC vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Rangers FC vs. Kilmarnock FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
William & Mary Tribe vs. Campbell Fighting Camels: O/U 168.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5 Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-15.5) Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Predators vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Rangers FC vs. Aberdeen FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $187 −$187 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-03-29? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $26 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 1¢ $41 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $43 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $37 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $5 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $4 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $20 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $15 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $8 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $2 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $7 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $3 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $8 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $5 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 4¢ $11 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 4¢ $16 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 4¢ $0 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 4¢ $93 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 4¢ $1 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 4¢ $10 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 4¢ $2 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 4¢ $0 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 4¢ $1 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 4¢ $0 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 4¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,305.81 · official $21,304.75 (match) · 3500 history records