Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb0d…7839 weather 657 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$450 (+1%) realized +$450 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate60%396W / 260L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$586
14 days+$662
30 days+$768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$391
other 30% −$2
weather 18% +$104
sports 4% +$36
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.9% -8.7% 90% 21% -5.3%
≤30d 135 -14.3% -22.4% 75% 12% -6.7%
≤90d 479 -20.7% -28.3% 52% 15% -8.3%
all 656 -15.4% -23.5% 60% 14% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 14% -8.8%
10% -30.8% 10% -17.5%
15% -37.5% 8% -25.5%
20% -43.6% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$450
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses396 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)656 / 657
History coverage156d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 656 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $1,552 +$48 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $1,520 +$80 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $143 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $136 +$8 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$2 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $143 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $1,550 +$50 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $143 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $139 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $293 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $1,092 +$60 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $881 +$319 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $709 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $1,116 +$84 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $137 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $140 +$4 +3%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $699 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $365 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $141 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $143 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $143 +$1 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $143 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $139 +$5 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $971 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $424 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1,552 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1,520 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $108 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $136 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $143 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1,550 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 82¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $144 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $91 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $52 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $139 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $292 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $293 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $881 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2889 history records