Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb11…8f3f sports 265 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,896 (-2%) realized −$2,619 · open −$277
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%163W / 97L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$681per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$1,430est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$743
7 days+$2,800
14 days+$2,462
30 days+$5,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$4,915
world 19% +$1,475
other 7% +$40
politics 0% −$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +29.6% +17.2% 64% 44% +1.4%
≤30d 121 +7.7% -2.6% 63% 38% -2.5%
≤90d 225 -2.5% -11.8% 61% 40% -12.0%
all 260 -0.6% -10.0% 63% 40% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 40% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 33% -19.6%
15% -26.5% 28% -27.4%
20% -33.7% 23% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$729) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$493 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$2,619
Unrealized−$277
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses163 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,430
Open positions4
Markets (closed)260 / 265
History coverage107d
Avg bet$681
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 26¢ $225 $132 −$92 (-41%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 56¢ $82 $108 +$26 (+31%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $90 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score No 42¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $455 +$45 +10%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $370 −$55 -15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $680 −$671 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $136 +$108 +79%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $97 +$106 +109%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 24 $496 +$4 +1%
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? Jun 24 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $99 −$33 -33%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $285 +$5 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $523 +$286 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $654 +$377 +58%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $320 +$680 +212%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $130 +$110 +85%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $740 +$260 +35%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $106 +$47 +45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,180 +$24 +1%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $158 −$158 -100%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $480 +$21 +4%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $130 +$351 +270%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $911 −$911 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$16 +76%
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 +$5 +567%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2,804 +$166 +6%
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? Jun 20 $68 −$8 -12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 −$131 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,259 −$1,259 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 20 $36 +$4 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $34 −$3 -8%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $273 +$5 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,469 +$119 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $63 +$154 +245%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,709 +$1,455 +85%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,525 +$1,652 +108%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,231 +$1,445 +117%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $145 −$93 -64%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $749 −$499 -67%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $12 +$5 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $86 −$59 -69%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $94 −$94 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $450 +$50 +11%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $539 +$525 +98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $474 +$41 +9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,387 +$53 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $92 20m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $42 20m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $5 21m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $4 21m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 21m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $29 21m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $203 56m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $8 56m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 57m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $9 57m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $4 57m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL No 53¢ $261 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $315 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $210 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 63¢ $315 7h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 91¢ $153 16h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 91¢ $101 16h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 91¢ $20 16h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 91¢ $33 16h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 91¢ $19 16h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 91¢ $48 16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 74¢ $344 17h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 74¢ $13 17h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 91¢ $80 17h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 74¢ $13 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $75 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $7 21h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $11 22h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $136 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.53 · official $330.55 (match) · 1976 history records