Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BB 0xbb11…66cb sports 458 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19,132 (+8%) realized +$20,438 · open −$1,306
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%305W / 149L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$527per market
Trades / day52.2pace
Fees−$3,491est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4,888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$116
14 days+$2,000
30 days+$5,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$11,859
politics 7% −$1,369
other 4% +$1,781
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.0% -2.3% 78% 33% -8.0%
≤30d 151 +11.2% +0.6% 68% 47% -3.1%
≤90d 454 +4.4% -5.6% 67% 47% -4.0%
all 454 +4.4% -5.6% 67% 47% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 47% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 34% -13.2%
15% -22.9% 22% -21.6%
20% -30.4% 12% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$572) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$175 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$4,888
Realized+$20,438
Unrealized−$1,306
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses305 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$3,491
Open positions4
Markets (closed)454 / 458
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$527
Trades / day52.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 79¢ $2,250 $3,571 +$1,321 (+59%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 21¢ $2,250 $929 −$1,321 (-59%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? No 32¢ 34¢ $125 $135 +$10 (+8%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $136 $134 −$2 (-1%)
Will T1 win MSI 2026? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $113 $120 +$7 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $452 +$11 +2%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 27 $2,702 −$125 -5%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $161 +$17 +10%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $347 +$101 +29%
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY Jun 26 $4 $0 +6%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $288 +$90 +31%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2,296 +$90 +4%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $231 +$19 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $593 −$87 -15%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $2,185 −$356 -16%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 19 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $1,697 +$260 +15%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $598 +$361 +60%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $503 +$57 +11%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $255 +$60 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $1,167 +$363 +31%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $3,095 +$57 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $677 +$41 +6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $227 +$30 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $491 +$359 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $48 +$4 +8%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $269 +$460 +171%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$68 -34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,030 −$253 -25%
Will Cloud9 win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $102 +$294 +290%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,010 +$420 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,000 −$321 -32%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,112 −$112 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $600 +$165 +28%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $89 +$1 +2%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $115 $0 +0%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $332 −$291 -88%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $779 +$10 +1%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $242 +$191 +79%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $318 +$282 +88%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $521 +$244 +47%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $37 +$189 +511%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $244 +$97 +40%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $320 +$220 +69%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $214 −$2 -1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $95 +$4 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $333 +$55 +17%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $248 −$248 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $0 $0 +49%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $557 +$81 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS 9¢ $18 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS 10¢ $20 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS 10¢ $0 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL DK 91¢ $445 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY DK 88¢ $432 1h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $318 2h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $57 3h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 3h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 4h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $702 5h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 7h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 7h
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY SELL DNS 16¢ $1 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY SELL DNS 16¢ $4 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY BUY DNS 15¢ $4 21h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY SELL DK 99¢ $378 23h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 76¢ $190 23h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 74¢ $98 23h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 95¢ $41 24h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 95¢ $100 24h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 68¢ $21 24h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 85¢ $2 25h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 85¢ $126 25h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 74¢ $200 25h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 74¢ $7 25h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL LOS 81¢ $17 25h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 54¢ $11 25h
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 3d
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY No 32¢ $7 3d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,888.15 · official $4,888.18 (match) · 3500 history records