Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb13…2de9 other 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$495 (-2%) realized −$477 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%53W / 97L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$813now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$326
14 days+$311
30 days−$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1,660
world 43% −$1,966
tech 5% −$201
sports 3% −$277
crypto 1% +$193
culture 1% +$173
politics 0% −$74
economics 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% +7.3%
≤30d 20 -30.7% -37.3% 30% 30% -11.7%
≤90d 36 -21.0% -28.5% 33% 33% -8.3%
all 150 -21.1% -28.6% 35% 34% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 34% -7.5%
10% -35.5% 29% -16.4%
15% -41.7% 23% -24.4%
20% -47.4% 17% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$80 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$813
Realized−$477
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses53 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)150 / 154
History coverage344d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $812 $806 −$6 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $202 +$48 +24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $204 −$23 -11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $246 −$19 -8%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $100 +$51 +51%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $759 +$217 +29%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $226 +$66 +29%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 10 $20 −$15 -75%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,555 −$547 -35%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $670 −$91 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 03 $100 −$61 -61%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $103 −$12 -11%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $628 +$112 +18%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $282 −$280 -99%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $596 +$312 +52%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $727 −$110 -15%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $9 −$2 -22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 20 $810 −$506 -62%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $894 +$343 +38%
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $15 +$19 +124%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $584 +$323 +55%
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 12 $223 −$69 -31%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 12 $1 +$2 +186%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $2,792 −$1,393 -50%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 23 $645 −$10 -2%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 21 $594 −$17 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $351 +$80 +23%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $600 +$784 +131%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy before August? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Mar 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 10 $123 +$45 +37%
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Player 58 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Graz host Eurovision 2026? Mar 10 $0 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Energy and Innovation Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 10 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $224 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $181 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 52¢ $182 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $26 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $26 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 57¢ $178 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 9h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $13 24h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $227 28h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $246 28h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $129 34h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $29 35h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 15¢ $131 43h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 46h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 46h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 2d
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $317 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $310 3d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 3d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 99¢ $976 4d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $659 4d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 25¢ $292 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $812.99 · official $812.99 (match) · 525 history records