trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $9 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $54 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $8 | −$1 | -8% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 18 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 27 | $12 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | -80% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 22 | $1 | $0 | -19% |
| Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? | Mar 13 | $12 | +$1 | +5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 50% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 33% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 33% | 0% | -8.7% |
| all | 16 | -5.3% | -14.3% | 50% | 0% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.3% | 0% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -22.5% | 0% | -17.3% |
| 15% | -30.0% | 0% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -36.8% | 0% | -32.6% |