Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb15…5fef other 454 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,916 (-6%) realized −$4,916 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%288W / 161L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$37
14 days−$154
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$4,162
sports 6% −$845
world 1% +$81
crypto 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -2.8% -12.1% 46% 43% -8.1%
≤30d 43 -4.4% -13.5% 47% 44% -14.9%
≤90d 124 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 44% -13.6%
all 449 -8.4% -17.1% 64% 45% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 45% -14.0%
10% -25.1% 30% -22.2%
15% -32.3% 19% -29.8%
20% -38.9% 12% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$95 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,916
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses288 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)449 / 454
History coverage272d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 449 Trades
no open positions (99 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 +$14 +134%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$67 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $102 +$74 +72%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$6 -63%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $101 +$71 +70%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $101 +$57 +57%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$1 -15%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $10 +$22 +216%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$68 +67%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 25 $101 +$38 +38%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $10 −$8 -79%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $49 −$46 -94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $204 −$180 -88%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $101 −$51 -51%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $228 +$5 +2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$6 -6%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $101 +$26 +26%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $204 +$89 +43%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$44 +43%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$3 -53%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$4 -42%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 +$52 +510%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 +$15 +61%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $29 +$6 +21%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$97 -96%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $319 −$318 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $242 +$62 +26%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $214 +$45 +21%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 −$96 -95%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $13 +$17 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $169 44m
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $175 45m
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals SELL Yes 16¢ $4 58m
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 1h
Senegal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 1h
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals SELL Yes 17¢ $9 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $102 2h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2h
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2h
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2h
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $101 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $169 21h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 21h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 21h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 22h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $101 23h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $49 25h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $101 44h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 4¢ $24 46h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 31¢ $50 46h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $204 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 61¢ $101 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 906 history records