Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:35:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BB 0xbb15…ee0f other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$459 (-28%) realized −$487 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$952now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$373
other 7% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -13.3% -21.5% 40% 40% -58.9%
≤30d 5 -13.3% -21.5% 40% 40% -58.9%
≤90d 5 -13.3% -21.5% 40% 40% -58.9%
all 5 -13.3% -21.5% 40% 40% -58.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 40% -58.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 40% -62.9%
15% -35.9% 20% -66.5%
20% -42.2% 20% -69.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$160 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$952
Realized−$487
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 69¢ $552 $556 +$4 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $211 $209 −$2 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 58¢ 80¢ $83 $114 +$31 (+38%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$54 +26%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$42 +207%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $260 −$260 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $7 42m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $7 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $7 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $62 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $557 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $214 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 72¢ $256 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 48¢ $63 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 5h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 56¢ $203 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $221 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $39 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $951.79 · official $957.18 (match) · 25 history records