trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 26 | -49.8% | -54.6% | 15% | 12% | -73.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -54.6% | 12% | -73.0% |
| 10% | -59.0% | 8% | -75.6% |
| 15% | -62.9% | 8% | -78.0% |
| 20% | -66.6% | 8% | -80.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $25 | $23 | −$2 (-9%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+6%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Austria win on 2026-07-02? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 6¢ | 1¢ | $10 | $2 | −$8 (-83%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 14 | $51 | −$50 | -97% |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 14 | $62 | −$60 | -97% |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 14 | $62 | −$60 | -97% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 08 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Nov 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November? | Nov 23 | $10 | +$48 | +476% |
| AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? | Nov 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | Nov 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Epstein client list released in 2025? | Nov 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | Nov 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during Hungary PM events on November 7 | Nov 21 | $1 | +$1 | +75% |
| Will CAVA say "Automation" during earnings call? | Nov 06 | $1 | $0 | -50% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? | Nov 05 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? | Nov 05 | $9 | −$9 | -99% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech? | Nov 05 | $5 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during hi | Nov 05 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? | Nov 04 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Nov 04 | $4 | $0 | -10% |
| US forces in Venezuela by December 31? | Nov 04 | $5 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more? | Nov 04 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? | Nov 04 | $20 | $0 | -2% |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Nov 04 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | Nov 04 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani not win the 2025 New York City mayoral election? | Nov 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |