trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 10 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 50% | 10% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 50% | 10% | -8.8% |
| all | 23 | +7.2% | -3.0% | 65% | 13% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.0% | 13% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -12.3% | 9% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -20.8% | 9% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -28.5% | 9% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 52¢ | $46 | $45 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 15 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 15 | $89 | +$1 | +1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 13 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $2 | +$1 | +56% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 10 | $62 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Jun 09 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? | Mar 22 | $11 | −$11 | -98% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German ele | Mar 20 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| South Florida vs. Temple | Feb 25 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Clippers vs. Bulls | Feb 25 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Colorado State vs. Air Force | Feb 25 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on February 20? | Feb 25 | $4 | +$6 | +170% |
| The Citadel vs. Furman | Feb 25 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Feb 25 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Arkansas vs. Auburn | Feb 20 | $4 | +$1 | +12% |