Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BB
0xbb1f…907d
world · 57 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3,978 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17,700 · open −$14,973
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$61,209
Realized+$17,700
Unrealized−$14,973
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)36 / 57
History coverage30d
Avg bet$9,518
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 21 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days+$15,328
14 days+$16,835
30 days+$17,700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 84¢ 91¢ $14,150 $15,359 +$1,210 (+9%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 81¢ 64¢ $18,283 $14,621 −$3,662 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 40¢ $12,019 $7,949 −$4,070 (-34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 64¢ $6,828 $5,891 −$937 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 75¢ 59¢ $4,935 $3,881 −$1,054 (-21%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 52¢ 32¢ $5,811 $3,491 −$2,321 (-40%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 43¢ 24¢ $4,816 $2,696 −$2,120 (-44%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 72¢ 82¢ $1,630 $1,878 +$248 (+15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 41¢ 22¢ $2,915 $1,545 −$1,371 (-47%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 92¢ 84¢ $1,000 $910 −$90 (-9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 74¢ 72¢ $737 $725 −$12 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 70¢ 50¢ $999 $725 −$275 (-27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 81¢ $483 $516 +$34 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 64¢ 55¢ $403 $348 −$54 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 71¢ 57¢ $355 $288 −$68 (-19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 58¢ 45¢ $200 $155 −$45 (-22%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 62¢ $113 $95 −$18 (-16%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $250 $52 −$198 (-79%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $100 $44 −$56 (-56%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $150 $34 −$116 (-77%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Down 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No 1¢ 0¢ $204 $0 −$204 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 12 $2,482 −$165 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $16,374 +$835 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $600 +$46 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $2,610 −$161 -6%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,130 +$499 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $11,423 −$569 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $750 +$59 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $936 +$146 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3,680 +$80 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $61,274 +$2,208 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $4,945 +$1,832 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $4,357 +$10,731 +246%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 04 $100 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $9,511 +$827 +9%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 02 $537 +$100 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $777 +$1,005 +129%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $38,175 −$3,915 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $13,611 −$3,096 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $150,450 +$10,988 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $12,883 −$433 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $23,979 −$3,968 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $11,723 +$706 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? May 28 $1,521 −$43 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $16,721 +$1,165 +7%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,366 −$153 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $13,313 −$1,599 -12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $385 +$69 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $14,300 +$213 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $8,536 +$262 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $3,904 +$72 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $20 −$5 -26%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 16 $1,378 +$59 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $9,898 +$97 +1%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $997 +$23 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 99% +$1,848
other 0% −$116
crypto 0% +$995
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 52¢ $829 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 52¢ $289 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $8 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $32 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $430 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $470 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $32 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $24 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $32 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $32 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $7 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $480 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 64¢ $11 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 64¢ $13 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 64¢ $13 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 64¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +9.4% -1.1% 64% 29% +2.9%
≤30d 36 +6.5% -3.6% 61% 19% -5.9%
≤90d 36 +6.5% -3.6% 61% 19% -5.9%
all 36 +6.5% -3.6% 61% 19% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 19% -5.9%
10% -12.9% 11% -14.9%
15% ← realistic here -21.3% 8% -23.2%
20% -29.0% 6% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61,208.62 · official $60,726.76 (match) · 1222 history records