Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb21…e043 other 61 markets active 90d ago coverage 510d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$16,305 (-73%) realized −$16,305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%13W / 48L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$2,193
other 23% −$4,565
economics 21% −$4,507
tech 16% −$2,300
world 13% −$2,570
culture 2% −$118
crypto 1% −$39
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-68.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 61 -65.5% -68.8% 21% 15% -76.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.8% 15% -76.1%
10% -71.8% 7% -78.4%
15% -74.5% 2% -80.5%
20% -77.0% 2% -82.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -67% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$348 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

510d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses13 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage510d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 14 $554 −$503 -91%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1) Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 06 $499 −$118 -24%
Kristi Noem out by March 31? Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $101 +$2 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 03 $127 −$114 -90%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $173 −$165 -95%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Feb 14 $253 −$253 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more? Feb 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 12 $5 +$1 +27%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? Feb 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Feb 01 $30 +$3 +12%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 01 $146 −$146 -100%
Will the US strike Syria next? Feb 01 $27 −$20 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 31 $45 −$15 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 31 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 31 $35 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 31 $15 +$4 +27%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $53 −$53 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $3,619 −$3,618 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 28 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jan 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Jan 15 $200 −$138 -69%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 10 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 03 $203 −$203 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Dec 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 28 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025? Dec 15 $10 −$4 -44%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Dec 08 $10 +$7 +70%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 05 $3,168 −$3,167 -100%
Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50? Dec 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Goog Dec 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 04 $1,500 −$1,085 -72%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 04 $500 +$56 +11%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $1,292 −$1,292 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? BUY No 0¢ $25 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $101 92d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 97d
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? BUY No 0¢ $5 100d
Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 101d
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1) BUY No 0¢ $10 101d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $29 101d
Kristi Noem out by March 31? BUY No 0¢ $3 101d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $100 102d
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL Yes 6¢ $103 103d
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 6¢ $101 103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $13 103d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $9 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 0¢ $0 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL No 0¢ $8 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 2¢ $173 106d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 45¢ $101 106d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 7¢ $110 117d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 7¢ $100 117d
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? BUY Yes 3¢ $253 121d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $253 121d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 6¢ $69 121d
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 122d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $99 122d
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? BUY No 4¢ $100 133d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? BUY No 8¢ $33 133d
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei SELL Yes 77¢ $33 133d
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 134d
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? BUY Yes 55¢ $133 134d
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records