Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb22…8db7 sports 938 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$336 (-4%) realized −$328 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%420W / 509L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$439
14 days−$374
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$289
other 12% −$107
politics 0% −$2
world 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -57.8% -61.8% 23% 20% -60.1%
≤30d 189 -35.1% -41.2% 35% 32% -40.8%
≤90d 717 -29.1% -35.8% 37% 33% -28.5%
all 929 -13.4% -21.7% 45% 42% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 42% -14.2%
10% -29.2% 38% -22.4%
15% -36.0% 32% -29.9%
20% -42.3% 27% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$328
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses420 / 509
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions7
Markets (closed)929 / 938
History coverage135d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 929 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 25¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +249%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$7 +180%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$4 +174%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$2 +47%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $7 +$3 +39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +80%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$5 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 12 $11 +$3 +28%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $1 59m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 40¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 19¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 81¢ $7 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 8¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $3 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 22h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 12¢ $1 22h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 87¢ $6 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $9 23h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 57¢ $4 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $5 27h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 21¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $6 30h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 17¢ $1 30h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 83¢ $7 30h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $4 32h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $3 32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 35¢ $2 34h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 58¢ $3 34h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 8¢ $1 34h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 59¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.62 · official $18.62 (match) · 2594 history records