Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BB 0xbb22…710a world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,433 (+33%) realized +$2,663 · open −$230
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%26W / 15L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269
7 days+$354
14 days+$681
30 days−$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$3,092
world 20% +$80
crypto 14% −$893
politics 10% +$311
culture 7% −$128
sports 4% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +32.9% +20.2% 100% 80% +13.2%
≤30d 14 -10.8% -19.3% 64% 43% -21.3%
≤90d 29 +63.6% +48.0% 69% 52% +28.4%
all 41 +46.3% +32.4% 63% 46% +26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.4% 46% +26.5%
10% +19.7% 32% +14.4%
15% +8.2% 27% +3.4%
20% -2.4% 20% -6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +79% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$88 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$2,165
Realized+$2,663
Unrealized−$230
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses26 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions29
Markets (closed)41 / 70
History coverage131d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $297 $299 +$2 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $240 $241 +$1 (+0%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $128 $138 +$11 (+8%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $131 $133 +$2 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $137 $111 −$26 (-19%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 90¢ 99¢ $100 $109 +$10 (+10%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 74¢ 84¢ $90 $102 +$12 (+13%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes $148 $81 −$68 (-46%)
Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 47¢ 16¢ $189 $66 −$123 (-65%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 75¢ 82¢ $57 $62 +$6 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $64 $60 −$4 (-6%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $67 $58 −$8 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+38%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $58 $55 −$4 (-7%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes 13¢ $81 $53 −$29 (-35%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? No 75¢ 91¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $55 $35 −$20 (-37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 12¢ $52 $26 −$26 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $181 +$133 +73%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $349 +$2 +0%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $663 +$124 +19%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $62 +$10 +16%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $154 +$85 +55%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $432 +$80 +19%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $158 +$247 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 02 $562 −$562 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 02 $308 −$308 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $287 +$13 +4%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $301 +$19 +6%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 22 $76 +$10 +13%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $27 +$16 +58%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $178 +$67 +38%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $116 +$3,110 +2682%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? May 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 14 $44 +$23 +52%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $22 −$6 -27%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $21 +$17 +79%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 03 $23 +$7 +30%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $54 +$10 +18%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? Apr 01 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 Mar 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 21 $30 −$8 -26%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $16 +$1 +4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $16 −$1 -6%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $8 +$2 +33%
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026? Mar 09 $11 −$9 -87%
Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $28 +$12 +43%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $21 +$9 +45%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $16 +$24 +150%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Feb 27 $80 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? Feb 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 15 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $314 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $145 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $144 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No $72 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No $0 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $30 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $79 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $30 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $152 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $86 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $9 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $2 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $78 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $26 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $3 5h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $1 5h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $17 5h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $36 5h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No $53 6h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No $94 6h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No $115 6h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $181 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $61 6h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $185 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $99 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $2 6h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $19 7h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $1 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No $79 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,164.91 · official $2,164.94 (match) · 487 history records