Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb24…d79f sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+3%) realized +$82 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%27W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$192
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$109
other 23% −$53
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +29.3% +17.0% 67% 67% +2.2%
≤30d 44 +7.2% -3.0% 59% 55% -7.1%
≤90d 47 +4.8% -5.2% 57% 53% -7.2%
all 47 +4.8% -5.2% 57% 53% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 53% -7.2%
10% -14.3% 45% -16.1%
15% -22.5% 34% -24.2%
20% -30.1% 26% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$25 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses27 / 20
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage103d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 38¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$25 +50%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 23 $177 +$21 +12%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $187 $0 -0%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $121 −$11 -9%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$17 +86%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$18 +89%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 23 $50 +$7 +14%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $44 −$44 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $50 +$12 +24%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 −$3 -17%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $72 −$71 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 +$21 +105%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $61 +$64 +105%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$20 +97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 +$5 +17%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$9 +43%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $61 −$48 -78%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$7 +34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$18 +180%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$18 +172%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $168 +$36 +21%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$2 -8%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$42 +82%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $160 −$67 -42%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$43 -84%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$42 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $77 +$40 +52%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$18 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 13 Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 13? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 14? Apr 23 $10 +$11 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 1h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Algeria 89¢ $177 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $51 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $89 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 43¢ $13 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 43¢ $46 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $187 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 8h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $88 9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $44 9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 12h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 98¢ $37 31h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 32¢ $17 31h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 31h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $20 31h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 32h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 34h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $42 34h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 40h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 40h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $20 42h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $61 42h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 42h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.75 · official $225.77 (match) · 107 history records