Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb29…1b48 sports 296 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$612 (-3%) realized −$612 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%125W / 164L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$40
14 days−$246
30 days−$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$40
world 7% −$123
crypto 3% −$120
other 2% −$145
politics 1% −$101
weather 1% −$105
economics 0% −$4
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +9.8% -0.6% 48% 38% -4.8%
≤30d 100 -22.6% -30.0% 31% 21% -14.0%
≤90d 191 -14.6% -22.7% 41% 34% -11.3%
all 289 -12.7% -21.1% 43% 34% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 34% -12.1%
10% -28.6% 24% -20.5%
15% -35.5% 19% -28.2%
20% -41.8% 15% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$612
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses125 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions1
Markets (closed)289 / 296
History coverage232d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Pakistan $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 21 $20 +$2 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $70 +$90 +130%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $188 −$44 -23%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 20 $16 −$4 -26%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +25%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $81 −$81 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $32 +$22 +68%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $8 −$5 -61%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $13 +$2 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $77 −$2 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $99 −$20 -20%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $25 −$5 -19%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-H Jun 18 $10 +$10 +98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $7 $0 -3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 AND Will Switzerland win on Jun 18 $6 +$1 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $80 +$29 +36%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$7 -14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $52 −$18 -34%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $23 +$76 +330%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $28 −$11 -41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $60 −$4 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $983 −$20 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $900 −$7 -1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $267 +$54 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$17 -28%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $76 +$60 +79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $10 +$22 +220%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $29 −$5 -18%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 13 $218 +$8 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $74 −$69 -93%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $131 −$46 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $185 −$5 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $62 −$57 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 11 $28 −$27 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $63 −$7 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 12? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 11 $23 −$22 -96%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $41 −$9 -23%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $38 +$53 +139%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $57 −$33 -58%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $20 −$3 -13%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $168 +$36 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $30 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 11h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders SELL Seattle Orcas 50¢ $22 25h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 43¢ $2 25h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 46¢ $7 25h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 45¢ $4 26h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 45¢ $7 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 96¢ $79 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 70¢ $18 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 62¢ $22 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 43¢ $6 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 43¢ $1 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 43¢ $5 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 43¢ $5 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 43¢ $5 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 13¢ $8 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 21¢ $11 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 39¢ $15 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 40¢ $5 34h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 37¢ $51 36h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh $9 39h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 35¢ $34 39h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 35¢ $103 39h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $107 40h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $71 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 39¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.09 · official $1.09 (match) · 1522 history records