Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb2d…1104 sports 34 markets active 22h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-27%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$15
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$8
other 26% −$29
crypto 19% −$15
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.5% -9.0% 38% 38% -22.7%
≤30d 27 -3.2% -12.4% 37% 37% -24.9%
≤90d 34 -17.1% -25.0% 32% 32% -35.2%
all 34 -17.1% -25.0% 32% 32% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 32% -35.2%
10% -32.2% 32% -41.4%
15% -38.7% 29% -47.0%
20% -44.7% 26% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage34d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$7 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$4 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +291%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +250%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 40h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 40h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 40h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $9 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $3 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $3 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $3 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records