Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb2e…8895 sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$385 (+1%) realized +$385 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate78%46W / 13L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$744per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$332est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$525
7 days+$840
14 days+$840
30 days−$800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$871
other 28% +$853
world 2% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.3% -9.3% 88% 18% -5.4%
≤30d 32 -4.2% -13.3% 81% 34% -11.5%
≤90d 59 -3.0% -12.3% 78% 39% -8.7%
all 59 -3.0% -12.3% 78% 39% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 39% -8.7%
10% -20.7% 19% -17.4%
15% -28.3% 10% -25.4%
20% -35.4% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,007) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$380 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$385
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses46 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$332
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage44d
Avg bet$744
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $1,366 +$77 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $1,002 +$72 +7%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus Jun 21 $1,006 +$26 +3%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $1,705 +$162 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj Jun 21 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,194 +$919 +77%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -97%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $1,007 +$26 +3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,003 +$95 +10%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $1,008 +$347 +34%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $2,017 +$25 +1%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $1,002 +$72 +7%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $1,014 +$65 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,401 +$39 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $314 +$113 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,008 +$26 +2%
Slovakia leading at halftime? Jun 01 $481 −$480 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $402 +$58 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $133 +$46 +35%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $27 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $336 +$40 +12%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $281 +$55 +20%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $235 +$46 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $184 +$51 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $143 +$41 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,013 +$64 +6%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,011 +$33 +3%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $507 +$472 +93%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $1,002 −$968 -97%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $1,004 +$144 +14%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $2,267 +$148 +6%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1,002 +$75 +8%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1,003 +$118 +12%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj May 21 $1,002 +$61 +6%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $1,016 +$22 +2%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier May 21 $1,002 +$83 +8%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 21 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina May 21 $502 +$95 +19%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5 May 21 $343 −$343 -100%
Geneva Open: Cameron Norrie vs Mariano Navone May 20 $1,004 +$156 +16%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline May 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $262 +$120 +46%
Bengaluru 3: Takuya Kumasaka vs Taiyo Yamanaka May 20 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $946 +$214 +23%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 19 $1,002 −$56 -6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $351 −$166 -47%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm SELL Marc Polmans 75¢ $1,063 16m
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm BUY Marc Polmans 70¢ $1,009 24m
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm SELL Marc Polmans 75¢ $379 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm BUY Marc Polmans 69¢ $357 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk SELL Aleksandar Vukic 100¢ $1,074 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Aleksandar Vukic 93¢ $1,002 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus SELL Sinja Kraus 82¢ $1,033 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 79¢ $1,006 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 100¢ $1,866 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 91¢ $1,705 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj BUY Veronika Erjavec 22¢ $1,023 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,113 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $184 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $103 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 22h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 80¢ $1,033 28h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 77¢ $1,007 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,098 39h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1,003 39h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce SELL Fenerbahce 100¢ $1,355 43h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 74¢ $1,008 46h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 93¢ $1,573 47h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 59¢ $1,012 47h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 41¢ $468 47h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 86¢ $1,004 47h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri SELL Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $1,074 2d
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 93¢ $1,002 2d
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen SELL Otto Virtanen 78¢ $1,007 2d
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 77¢ $1,007 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records