Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BB 0xbb2f…d0c3 crypto 481 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$251 (-20%) realized −$251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%167W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$137
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -14.2% -22.4% 43% 42% -18.5%
≤30d 477 -22.4% -29.8% 35% 34% -31.0%
≤90d 480 -22.3% -29.7% 35% 34% -30.8%
all 480 -22.3% -29.7% 35% 34% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.7% 34% -30.8%
10% ← realistic here -36.4% 32% -37.4%
15% -42.5% 27% -43.4%
20% -48.2% 25% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses167 / 313
Open positions1
Markets (closed)480 / 481
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 84¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 226 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.26 · official $1.17 (match) · 1009 history records