Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb30…6498 world 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$121 (+2%) realized +$195 · open −$74
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%36W / 23L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$236
14 days−$652
30 days−$586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$347
sports 20% −$64
other 12% −$272
finance 10% +$87
tech 3% −$37
politics 0% −$4
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -58.2% -62.2% 0% 0% -62.2%
≤30d 5 -8.4% -17.1% 40% 20% -61.4%
≤90d 48 -2.4% -11.7% 62% 38% -7.9%
all 59 -4.5% -13.6% 61% 34% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 34% -8.0%
10% -21.9% 22% -16.8%
15% -29.4% 10% -24.9%
20% -36.4% 8% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$41 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$195
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses36 / 23
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage111d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $193 $163 −$30 (-16%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 33¢ 20¢ $114 $70 −$44 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $405 −$236 -58%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $421 −$416 -99%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $53 +$88 +167%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? May 30 $50 −$28 -56%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $98 +$6 +6%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $31 −$7 -22%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $31 +$69 +223%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 17 $340 −$20 -6%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB May 16 $87 +$13 +15%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $121 +$29 +24%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 12 $37 +$5 +14%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $36 +$2 +7%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 N May 12 $198 +$6 +3%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $308 +$13 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $282 +$20 +7%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 06 $14 −$4 -31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $35 −$29 -83%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $287 +$44 +15%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 May 02 $328 +$113 +34%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $52 +$3 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 24 $26 +$8 +31%
Another S&P 500 All Time High by April 21? Apr 22 $142 +$10 +7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on April 21? Apr 22 $4 +$6 +151%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $53 −$4 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Another S&P 500 All Time High by April 20? Apr 21 $352 +$39 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 13 $70 +$9 +12%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 202 Apr 12 $505 −$18 -4%
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? Apr 11 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $38 −$25 -65%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026 Apr 10 $861 +$250 +29%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $199 +$88 +44%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 05 $12 −$1 -8%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $38 −$26 -68%
Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30? Apr 01 $323 +$57 +18%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $149 +$50 +34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 27 $74 +$4 +6%
Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March? Mar 27 $246 −$38 -16%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March? Mar 23 $85 +$49 +58%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $223 +$15 +7%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? Mar 20 $100 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $169 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 15¢ $11 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 15¢ $4 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 31¢ $31 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 38¢ $14 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 38¢ $3 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 38¢ $1 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 49¢ $50 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $116 10d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 15¢ $120 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $103 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 18d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 26d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 26d
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 26d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 26d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 27d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? SELL Yes 69¢ $103 27d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 27d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 28d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 28d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 28d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 28d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 29d
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 51¢ $50 30d
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 53¢ $66 30d
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 51¢ $1 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 31¢ $31 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.50 · official $230.75 (match) · 336 history records