trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 44% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 44% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 28 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 36% | 7% | -7.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.0% | 7% | -7.7% |
| 10% | -15.9% | 7% | -16.6% |
| 15% | -24.0% | 4% | -24.6% |
| 20% | -31.5% | 4% | -32.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 90¢ | $40 | $40 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 93¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 03 | $75 | +$1 | +1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 31 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 31 | $54 | −$2 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 29 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 28 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 28 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 27 | $43 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 26 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Dec 22 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Dec 11 | $15 | +$4 | +24% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? | Dec 11 | $14 | +$9 | +64% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Nov 25 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 19 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? | Oct 02 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Sep 28 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 27 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? | Sep 27 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 27 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Sep 27 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? | Sep 26 | $3 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 26 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? | Sep 25 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Sep 25 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | Sep 25 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Sep 22 | $28 | $0 | +0% |