Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb3c…f058 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$134 (-26%) realized −$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$144
14 days−$144
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$123
crypto 2% −$8
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -31.9% -38.4% 44% 44% -44.5%
≤30d 20 -21.2% -28.7% 45% 45% -40.6%
≤90d 25 -11.5% -19.9% 52% 52% -36.2%
all 26 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 50% -36.3%
10% -30.4% 50% -42.4%
15% -37.1% 42% -48.0%
20% -43.3% 35% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage100d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$32 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $2 +$4 +177%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 05 $10 +$9 +87%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 30 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 30 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 30 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Mar 30 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $120 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $3 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 99¢ $6 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 18d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 35¢ $2 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 21d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.59 · official $59.59 (match) · 44 history records