Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BB 0xbb3e…b9c5 sports 68 markets active 6h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1,247 (+14%) realized +$1,247 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate75%51W / 17L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day88.8pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$605
sports 48% +$451
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +12.7% +2.0% 75% 37% +0.8%
≤30d 68 +12.7% +2.0% 75% 37% +0.8%
≤90d 68 +12.7% +2.0% 75% 37% +0.8%
all 68 +12.7% +2.0% 75% 37% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 37% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 16% -8.8%
15% -16.7% 10% -17.6%
20% -24.9% 6% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$30 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,247
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses51 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage4d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day88.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $23 −$3 -12%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $428 −$70 -16%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $3 −$1 -57%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $74 −$13 -18%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $190 +$24 +12%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $3 $0 +10%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $49 +$14 +28%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $123 +$21 +17%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $779 −$8 -1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $724 −$57 -8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $115 +$39 +34%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $185 +$233 +126%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $397 +$180 +45%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,037 +$216 +21%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $238 +$33 +14%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $41 −$2 -5%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $2 $0 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $122 +$439 +360%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $109 +$14 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,292 +$8 +1%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $72 −$2 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $854 −$286 -33%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $21 +$5 +23%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $32 +$1 +4%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $83 −$3 -3%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $27 +$6 +23%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $6 +$1 +13%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $54 +$2 +3%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $104 +$15 +14%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $70 +$7 +10%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $245 +$206 +84%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $31 +$1 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $595 −$37 -6%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $14 +$1 +10%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $69 +$3 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $233 +$52 +22%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $16 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 53¢ $0 6h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 55¢ $20 6h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 61¢ $23 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $0 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $2 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $0 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $1 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 11h
Spread: United States (-3.5) SELL United States 24¢ $61 12h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 28¢ $74 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $167 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $188 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $201 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $224 12h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 27¢ $81 16h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 20¢ $64 16h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 38¢ $0 17h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 40¢ $72 17h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 39¢ $73 17h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 61¢ $0 17h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 61¢ $0 17h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 61¢ $61 17h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 52¢ $54 17h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen SELL Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $0 17h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen SELL Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $0 17h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen SELL Zhizhen Zhang 61¢ $2 17h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Zhizhen Zhang 54¢ $3 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $4 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $8 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records