Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb42…76fa world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%25W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$3
other 14% −$17
politics 5% +$5
sports 2% +$14
weather 1% −$13
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.2% -17.9% 20% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 26 -3.1% -12.3% 19% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 32 -2.4% -11.7% 22% 0% -9.8%
all 71 +0.5% -9.0% 35% 6% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -10.4%
10% -17.7% 6% -18.9%
15% -25.7% 6% -26.8%
20% -33.0% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses25 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage531d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $59 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $56 −$4 -7%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $82 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $48 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $157 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4 −$2 -36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $17 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $78 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $46 +$3 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 18 $42 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $16 −$8 -50%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 03 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 24 $6 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $40 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $27 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $9 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $36 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $22 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $0 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $40 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $39 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $28 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.34 · official $38.34 (match) · 241 history records