Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb43…612d sports 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-7%) realized −$19 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%83W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$22
other 33% +$11
world 3% −$5
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.4% -23.5% 50% 45% -30.1%
≤30d 27 +3.4% -6.5% 56% 52% -15.1%
≤90d 146 -16.9% -24.8% 44% 42% -24.9%
all 171 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 47% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 47% -17.5%
10% -25.2% 44% -25.4%
15% -32.4% 35% -32.6%
20% -39.0% 24% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses83 / 88
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)171 / 176
History coverage131d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+54%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 76¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -78%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 $0 -40%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$3 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 $0 +17%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 +$7 +238%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +67%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +197%
Chwalinska vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Madrid Open: Ann Li vs Leylah Fernandez Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Paranaense vs. EC Vitória end in a draw? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Santos Laguna vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $1 $0 +50%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 25 $1 +$1 +53%
Madrid Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alexander Blockx Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Ugo Humbert vs Terence Atmane Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Diana Shnaider Apr 25 $1 +$1 +62%
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Tomas Machac Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $1 $0 +29%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Marin Cilic Apr 24 $1 $0 -36%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Magdalena Frech vs Solana Sierra Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Alexandra Eala Apr 24 $1 $0 +40%
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Apr 24 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -60%
Zakharova vs. Osorio: Match O/U 21.5 Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Alycia Parks vs Ksenia Efremova Apr 21 $1 $0 +31%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Zakharova vs Camila Osorio Apr 21 $1 $0 +40%
Will CA Tigre vs. CA Huracán end in a draw? Apr 21 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $1 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 7h
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals SELL Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals SELL Yes 26¢ $1 9h
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $1 10h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $2 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 23h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $3 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 28h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 32h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 4d
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 5d
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 5d
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.00 · official $13.00 (match) · 363 history records