Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb45…1057 crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized −$1 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%34W / 22L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$541
14 days+$986
30 days+$986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$925
sports 24% +$9
world 4% +$101
crypto 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +14.8% +3.9% 69% 69% +15.4%
≤30d 17 +19.3% +7.9% 71% 71% +18.9%
≤90d 56 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 55% +17.5%
all 56 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 55% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 55% +17.5%
10% -13.0% 43% +6.2%
15% -21.4% 38% -4.0%
20% -29.1% 36% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$10 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.22 per $1 lost it wins $5.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses34 / 22
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 63
History coverage70d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia Czechia 76¢ 100¢ $300 $392 +$92 (+31%)
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-28? Yes 82¢ 73¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-28? Yes 74¢ 14¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 −$35 -69%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 28 $462 −$107 -23%
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 28 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $100 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 -24%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Dabrowski/Stefani vs Maleckova/Skoch Jun 28 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $163 +$101 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26 Jun 27 $196 +$99 +51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND W Jun 25 $102 +$117 +115%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2 Jun 25 $201 +$54 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $328 +$175 +53%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $162 +$100 +62%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $552 +$66 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $203 +$173 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$40 -39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $319 +$245 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 11 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7AM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 20 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 20 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 20 $22 −$16 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 20 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 20 $2 +$4 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 20 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 19 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 19 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 19 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 19 $3 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$3 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 21m
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 44m
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 1h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL Ireland 100¢ $281 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 94¢ $160 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 90¢ $100 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL India 30¢ $74 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 68¢ $101 3h
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia BUY Czechia 83¢ $101 4h
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia BUY Czechia 62¢ $101 4h
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia BUY Czechia 89¢ $100 5h
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 89¢ $100 5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 94¢ $100 5h
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Dabrowski/Stefani vs Maleckova/Skoch SELL Dabrowski/Stefani 100¢ $112 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Dabrowski/Stefani vs Maleckova/Skoch BUY Dabrowski/Stefani 89¢ $100 7h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 61¢ $163 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26 BUY 66¢ $196 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 79¢ $335 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2 BUY 78¢ $201 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Bosnia and He BUY 62¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 46¢ $102 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 49¢ $152 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 65¢ $328 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 61¢ $162 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.23 · official $445.15 (match) · 165 history records