Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BB 0xbb45…3de5 crypto 469 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+2%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate83%391W / 78L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -10.1% -18.6% 76% 52% -17.2%
≤30d 177 -2.5% -11.8% 80% 58% -13.1%
≤90d 469 +0.7% -8.9% 83% 58% -8.9%
all 469 +0.7% -8.9% 83% 58% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 58% -8.9%
10% -17.6% 31% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 11% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses391 / 78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)469 / 469
History coverage42d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 469 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 28 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 25 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 25 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 25 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 25 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 25 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 25 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 25 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 25 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 25 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 25 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 25 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 867 history records