Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BB 0xbb48…58a4 world 8 markets active 5d ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$6 (+33%) realized +$8 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$3
crypto 27% +$5
sports 20% +$1
politics 10% +$3
tech 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +48.1% +34.0% 67% 67% +53.1%
≤30d 6 +63.7% +48.1% 83% 83% +54.2%
≤90d 7 +40.3% +26.9% 71% 71% +37.2%
all 7 +40.3% +26.9% 71% 71% +37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.9% 71% +37.2%
10% +14.8% 71% +24.1%
15% +3.7% 71% +12.1%
20% -6.5% 57% +1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage57d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 67¢ 6¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 10 $2 +$3 +166%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $2 +$2 +75%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +125%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $3 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 37¢ $2 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $3 33d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 42¢ $2 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 57¢ $2 54d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 73¢ $4 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.24 (match) · 13 history records