Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb4d…7001 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$20,013 (+25%) realized +$18,493 · open +$1,520
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%24W / 25L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$1,468per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$38,062now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$42
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$2,171
tech 13% +$17,249
sports 0% +$55
crypto 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.7% -15.6% 33% 33% -4.2%
≤30d 10 +5.6% -4.5% 40% 40% +12.4%
≤90d 12 +17.7% +6.5% 50% 42% +51.2%
all 49 +17.2% +6.0% 49% 39% +69.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 39% +69.4%
10% -4.1% 35% +53.2%
15% -13.4% 33% +38.4%
20% -21.9% 33% +24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$812 vs −$62 · ×13.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.61 per $1 lost it wins $12.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$38,062
Realized+$18,493
Unrealized+$1,520
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage598d
Avg bet$1,468
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $17,740 $18,914 +$1,175 (+7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $10,822 $10,848 +$27 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $4,810 $4,902 +$92 (+2%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $3,010 $3,237 +$227 (+8%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 50¢ $161 $159 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +172%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 11 $22 +$28 +124%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 14 $1,157 +$1,784 +154%
China coup attempt before 2027? Apr 13 $1,508 +$45 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 23 $2,459 −$1,287 -52%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 29 $1,935 +$1,243 +64%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 29 $1,491 +$10,956 +735%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Jan 01 $588 +$103 +18%
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? Dec 24 $80 −$6 -7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 17 $5,514 +$4,564 +83%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 30 $920 +$66 +7%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 01 $3,923 +$129 +3%
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Sep 08 $20 +$25 +127%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Sep 04 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 04 $36 +$9 +24%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Sep 04 $62 +$10 +16%
US Open: Tomas Machac vs Taylor Fritz Aug 31 $4 −$4 -100%
US Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Jiri Lehecka Aug 31 $9 −$9 -100%
US Open: Jessica Pegula vs Ann Li Aug 31 $7 −$7 -100%
US Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Borna Coric Aug 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Aug 02 $340 +$397 +117%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 13 $406 −$8 -2%
Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova (W) Jul 11 $5 +$12 +245%
Wimbledon: Bencic vs. Swiatek (W) Jul 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Wimbledon: Andreeva vs. Navarro (W) Jul 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon: Fritz vs. Khachanov Jul 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Siegemund Jul 08 $5 +$13 +260%
Wimbledon: Shelton vs. Sonego Jul 07 $10 +$10 +100%
Wimbledon: Alexandrova vs. Bencic (W) Jul 07 $10 +$15 +147%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $50 −$14 -28%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Jun 09 $486 +$6 +1%
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner Jun 09 $20 +$20 +100%
French Open: Sinner vs. Djokovic Jun 07 $22 −$22 -100%
French Open: Sabalenka vs. Swiatek Jun 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $20 +$2 +8%
French Open: Zverev vs. Djokovic Jun 05 $20 +$19 +96%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $81 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $81 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $5 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $2 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 12d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 26¢ $20 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 44¢ $22 17d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $717 38d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $115 38d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $6 38d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $368 38d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $1,120 60d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $797 63d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 63d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $893 64d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $1,290 64d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $4,810 64d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $2,902 64d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $4,849 64d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $1,865 64d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 76¢ $228 68d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 77¢ $616 68d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 77¢ $757 68d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 77¢ $308 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,062.22 · official $38,062.22 (match) · 1350 history records