Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb4f…297f crypto 431 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,451 (-22%) realized −$1,452 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%174W / 251L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$144
14 days−$173
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$246
finance 17% −$1,100
other 4% −$171
tech 0% +$6
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -8.4% -17.1% 13% 13% -58.7%
≤30d 303 -10.6% -19.1% 42% 38% -18.9%
≤90d 395 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 38% -18.2%
all 425 -10.0% -18.5% 41% 37% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 37% -30.6%
10% -26.3% 24% -37.2%
15% -33.5% 18% -43.3%
20% -40.0% 16% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$1,452
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses174 / 251
Open positions6
Markets (closed)425 / 431
History coverage101d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 21¢ 46¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+121%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 24¢ 29¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+20%)
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 25¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 16¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +296%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +228%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +350%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$25 +957%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 0m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 0m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 0m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 32m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.20 · official $11.50 · 2002 history records