Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BB 0xbb4f…dba2 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$807 (-2%) realized −$820 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate86%36W / 6L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$870per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$1,459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$231
30 days+$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$894
tech 12% +$120
crypto 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.2% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 12 +16.3% +5.3% 92% 50% -4.0%
≤90d 13 +16.0% +5.0% 92% 54% -3.9%
all 42 +4.7% -5.3% 86% 36% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 36% -11.5%
10% -14.3% 17% -20.0%
15% -22.6% 12% -27.7%
20% -30.2% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,368) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$566 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$1,459
Realized−$820
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses36 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage199d
Avg bet$870
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,128 $1,132 +$3 (+0%)
Will MrBeast hit 133 billion views by July 31? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $319 $328 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $628 +$26 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,368 +$56 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $364 +$64 +18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $857 +$85 +10%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $205 +$24 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 06 $939 +$49 +5%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $891 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 31 $12 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 31 $158 +$69 +43%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $208 +$64 +31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 68 and 71 million views on day 3 May 19 $89 +$11 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3 Mar 10 $1,881 −$1,792 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Mar 10 $1,735 +$146 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Mar 08 $995 +$86 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39.5 and 40.0 million views on d Feb 27 $1,533 +$115 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 36.5 and 37.0 million views on d Feb 26 $1,351 +$183 +14%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 18–20 million views on day 1? Feb 23 $2,298 +$53 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Feb 21 $600 +$232 +39%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Feb 21 $602 +$276 +46%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 24 million or more views on day 1? Feb 21 $187 +$10 +6%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 17 $1,765 +$14 +1%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 55 and 60 million views on wee Feb 14 $1,560 +$173 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? Feb 11 $1,551 +$40 +3%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 50 and 55 million views on wee Feb 10 $985 +$347 +35%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 10 $204 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 48 million views on day 2 Feb 09 $1,183 +$17 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Feb 08 $1,566 −$276 -18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Feb 08 $1,235 +$129 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Feb 04 $1,197 +$133 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jan 29 $1,196 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's Celebrity Challenge video get between 76 and 79 million Jan 25 $22 +$3 +12%
Will MrBeast's Celebrity Challenge video get between 79 and 82 million Jan 25 $2,408 −$68 -3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jan 12 $1,234 +$27 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jan 09 $1,135 +$99 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Dec 28 $134 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Dec 26 $131 +$3 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Dec 21 $111 +$21 +19%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Dec 13 $110 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Dec 13 $416 −$414 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Dec 10 $1,653 −$737 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast hit 133 billion views by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 34m
Will MrBeast hit 133 billion views by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $86 35m
Will MrBeast hit 133 billion views by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 35m
Will MrBeast hit 133 billion views by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 36m
Will MrBeast hit 133 billion views by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $69 43m
Will MrBeast hit 133 billion views by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $122 44m
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $331 4d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $296 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 8d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $182 8d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 8d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $100 8d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $176 11d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 11d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $380 11d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $113 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,459.42 · official $1,452.59 (match) · 318 history records