Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BB 0xbb51…9f19 other 3 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$62 (+19%) realized +$122 · open −$60

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip

Net edge+65%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$106per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+71.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+89.6%	+71.5%	50%	50%	+53.1%
≤30d	2	+89.6%	+71.5%	50%	50%	+53.1%
≤90d	2	+89.6%	+71.5%	50%	50%	+53.1%
all	2	+89.6%	+71.5%	50%	50%	+53.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+71.5%	50%	+53.1%
10%	+55.1%	50%	+38.4%
15%	+40.1%	50%	+25.1%
20%	+26.4%	50%	+12.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +69% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +90% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$110 vs −$49 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$67

Realized+$122

Unrealized−$60

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$106

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	35¢	18¢	$127	$67	−$60 (-47%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$50	−$49	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$39	+$110	+279%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$28	14m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	32m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	38¢	$129	49m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	28¢	$7	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	28¢	$41	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	28¢	$51	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	20¢	$50	27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	97¢	$150	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	25¢	$39	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.42 · official $67.42 (match) · 9 history records