Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:35:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb54…17ec sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48 (+2%) realized +$49 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$41
sports 36% −$12
crypto 5% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +9.2% -1.2% 77% 69% -8.9%
≤30d 13 +9.2% -1.2% 77% 69% -8.9%
≤90d 13 +9.2% -1.2% 77% 69% -8.9%
all 13 +9.2% -1.2% 77% 69% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 69% -8.9%
10% -10.7% 62% -17.7%
15% -19.3% 46% -25.6%
20% -27.2% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$160 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $155 $154 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $92 +$64 +69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $78 +$9 +11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $254 −$248 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $200 −$167 -83%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $131 +$106 +81%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $96 +$26 +28%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $99 +$36 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $290 +$105 +36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $213 +$77 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $72 +$24 +33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $197 +$17 +9%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $45 +$27 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $156 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $92 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $78 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $254 43h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $34 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $236 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $64 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $131 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $122 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $134 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $96 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $99 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $200 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $395 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $290 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $213 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $96 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $72 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $97 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $97 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $45 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.05 · official $154.05 (match) · 30 history records