Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb54…172f crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$37 (-4%) realized −$35 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +16.5% +5.4% 53% 47% -17.1%
≤30d 19 +16.5% +5.4% 53% 47% -17.1%
≤90d 19 +16.5% +5.4% 53% 47% -17.1%
all 19 +16.5% +5.4% 53% 47% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.4% 47% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -4.7% 42% -25.1%
15% -13.9% 37% -32.3%
20% -22.4% 32% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$64 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 63¢ 32¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$9 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$217 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $66 +$158 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$47 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.58 · official $4.40 · 65 history records